![]() ![]() Second, the ASEAN members who have the most at stake in the South China Sea-principally Vietnam, the Philippines, and Malaysia-are increasingly realizing that their regional organization has little ability to stand up to China. ![]() Earlier this year, Chinese vessels cut the cables on Vietnamese ships operating in the South China Sea, and over the year there have been at least ten confrontations on the sea between China and the Philippines. What’s more, many senior Chinese officials appear to view the South China Sea as an area of "core interest" that is as non-negotiable as other sensitive regions like Taiwan and Tibet-rhetoric that China recently has tamped down but not abandoned. Both the "deal" and those guidelines are vaguely worded, and mostly avoid overlapping territorial claims to focus instead on issues like environmental protection For one, the new "deal" is really just a commitment to implement guidelines for all the countries to try and work out rival claims it hardly guarantees that any of the nations will give up their demands over part of the sea. The ASEAN-China agreement fails to address the drivers of potential conflict in the South China Sea. ![]() But the agreement skirts resolution of key issues, and the involvement of the United States as a last-resort guarantor of Southeast Asian states’ rights to the sea is likely to grow. At this summer’s ASEAN Regional Forum in Bali, China and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations celebrated the drafting of an agreement between Southeast Asian states and China to resolve South China Sea disputes peacefully, according to guidelines laid down previously. ![]()
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